Priority Broadcast Alert – Indian Ocean Region

UKMTO, MSCIO, and JMIC issued a joint advisory, stating that the threat in the Arabian/Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman was expected to increase due to “increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners”. Though a 6th round of talks between the US and Iran was planned for this week, hostile rhetoric between the US and Iran increased noticeably over the past days. US President Donald Trump reiterated his willingness to conduct military action if an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program was not reached, and Iran’s Minister of Defence, Aziz Nasirzadeh, stated that Iran would strike US bases in the Middle East in the event of a military conflict with the US. Throughout negotiations between the US and Iran, Israel maintained a maximalist stance, threatening military action if Iran’s nuclear program continued. Recent statements by Trump indicated rising difficulties in achieving an agreement with Iran, and mounting domestic pressure on Israel’s government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, may lead to a unilateral Israeli air strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Such a strike may occur with the acceptance or even logistical support of the US. In the event of a pre-emptive strike against Iran, tensions are assessed to increase across the Middle East. Israel-affiliated merchant shipping is assessed to be at heightened risk of reciprocal military action. Substantial US support to Israeli offensive action would raise the risk to US shipping and vessels carrying US cargo.
ADVICE: Merchant vessels are advised to perform thorough affiliation checks prior to transiting the Arabian/Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea. Vessels may seek military assistance enroute. Limited naval vessel availability may restrict naval operations.